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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 10th, 2023

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  • Agreeing with this, expanding a RAID array is not necessarily impossible, with something like RAID 5, and the right RAID setup, you could theoretically add an identical disk without wiping it all in the rebuild. RAID 1, you’ll 100% need to copy the data somewhere that isn’t the 2/4 disks in the meantime. In an environment where storage is expensive, RAID 1 is not suitable imo.

    ZFS makes it so easy though. Throw a mismatched disk in? No big deal, it’s in your pool now. Want double parity for extra peace of mind? You can do that. It self-heals so you don’t need fsck, its maximum limits are too big to realistically matter on human scales, and the documentation on it is pretty good.


  • Certainly, some interesting developments have happened, and we’ve realized our old models/thinking about progress towards AGI needed improvement… and that’s real. I think there’s a serious conversation to be had about what AGI would be, and how we can know we’re approaching it, and when it has arrived.

    But anybody telling you it is close either has something to sell you, or has themselves bought it.


  • Yeah this is it, the problem is that even once you solve the technology problem, it becomes the choice between two logistics problems, distributing liquid fuel for refilling, and moving large amounts of power on the grid on demand. The latter is a solvable problem, but the former is just so well understood.

    Certainly, most people are better served by EVs today, for their personal vehicle needs. But I think hydrogen will be a compelling option for people with specific needs beyond the short term. Especially with continued investment in that technology in Japan.


  • There are two hydrogen fill stations between my home and work, they definitely get used, and the price per kg of green hydrogen is still trending downwards. It’ll never be the next big thing, hydrogen is heavy and has several of the other problems of gasoline that EVs always solve. But for people who need personal transport, and need to frequently go larger distances than one battery charge will support, hydrogen fuel cells solve a problem EVs have, without going back to fossil fuels; fuelling up takes negligible time.

    I think hydrogen cars will have a niche for a long time to come, enough to keep the technology around and evolving.




  • Critically, the people who build these machines don’t typically update drivers to port them to a new OS. You buy a piece of heavy equipment, investing tens, or maybe even a hundred thousand dollars, and there’s an OS it works on, maybe two if you’re lucky. The equipment hopefully works for at least 20 years, and basically no OS is going to maintain that kind of compatibility for that long. Linux might get the closest, but I’ll bet you’re compiling/patching your own kernels before 20 years is up.

    This kind of dynamic is unavoidable when equipment vendors sell equipment which has a long usable life (which is good), and don’t invest in software support (which is them being cheap, to an extent), and OSes change enough that these time horizons likely involve compatibility-breaking releases.



  • The USA made it a long way without it being a serious issue, like 200 years. Like presidents would pick qualified federal court judges whose judicial philosophies tended to favor their side a bit more, but were generally good at being fair jurists, and cases decided along the lines of which party’s president had appointed them were super rare.

    Then in the 80s, Reagan started appointing more explicitly partisan judges, and a far right activist think tank started grooming ideologues who were law students as potential future justices, a few of whom Trump ended up appointing. Basically every appointment after 1982 either continued the trend, or worsened it, with the notable exception of Obama appointing Marrick Garland, though he knew there was a good chance the Senate wouldn’t approve any nominee.

    It’s one of those systems that works fine if everybody is acting in good faith, and crumbles when someone tries to take advantage of it. Yeah it’s probably a bad idea.






  • They could probably pass a law that companies within California pay taxes to the fed through an escrow account held by the state, pass the data through so if nothing crazy happens, it doesn’t really affect anybody, and get enough companies to comply that Trump would back down.

    The courts would eventually decide whether or not it was legal, but by then Trump will have moved off to another target to performatively attack while pretending to help people who aren’t multi-millionaires while siphoning their money instead.


  • It’s a structural challenge more than a fallacy, but I don’t entirely disagree. This sort of thing works best when one of two things is true, there’s some way for people to organize, or it’s relatively small and there are real options.

    The former clearly isn’t true here, but I think the latter is. There’s a lot of companies trying things with AI, and some are working better or worse. This particular use is relatively small, and I think the downside of doing it is also small in the short term. (This is a giant red flag, avoiding a red flag isn’t a large cost)





  • I suspect there’s a tendency of experts in something to think of people who do it narrowly as people doing at least as much as they are.

    The people who have a bunch of docker services, or complex multi-machine infrastructure are self-hosted software users, and probably in that 1-2% range. People who heard piholes are useful, so they bought a pi 3 and set it up are self-hosted software users. Somebody using an old desktop they got on Facebook marketplace for running Plex media are self-hosted software users… and so on. So are the people in their houses, some of their friends and family.

    Using that inclusive definition, being closer to 10% than 1% makes sense to me.