

I am honestly not sure about that. Similar to the ASML restrictions this does hinder them in the short term, but it also means they have all the more reason to double their efforts to make a domestic product. And it also means the chinese firms get this whole market by default and the western ones lose it, which in return means less revenue/profit to keep pushing ahead.
I guess at this stage it might be all that’s left as a counter measure, but I feel like the west in general really dropped the ball pushing for general equal access and opportunities, when it still had a stronger hand.
Well there are claims that Huawei is aiming for 3nm with GAA with tape out next year See Here.
I think we shouldn’t forget that the nm numbers really are just that: Numbers. They don’t correspond to any specific measurements and can be chosen more or less arbitrarily. So 6nm for example might just be a slightly refined 7nm node.
Another thing is power efficiency and yields. If they get 4060 performance at terrible yields and with massive power draw then it is very different to getting there at similar parameters as Nvidia.
If China does end up cracking EUV by themselves it would indeed be massive. It’s arguably one of the most complex things mankind has ever done. But there are so many factors to get right that tbh I don’t see it happening any time soon.